New Delhi. The Indian economy is determinedly marching towards becoming a “rapidly rising global power” and is projected to reach a size equal to that of the United States by 2050. This assertion has been made by the renowned economist and commentator, Martin Wolf. He also stated that Western countries’ leaders are keeping a close eye on India’s progress.
According to Wolf’s article in ‘The Financial Times,’ he believes that India can achieve an annual per capita GDP growth rate of around 5% or even higher by 2050. With better policies, this growth could even exceed the projected figure. However, it might fall slightly short as well.
Due to its large domestic market, India holds a favorable position compared to its competitors. It aims to adopt a “China Plus One” strategy for companies looking to diversify their operations. India currently ranks as the fifth-largest economy globally and the third-largest in terms of purchasing power.
Wolf mentioned that the country’s banking sector has improved significantly, and credit growth is also on a better trajectory. In the coming decades, both the Indian economy and population are expected to grow rapidly. This trajectory will position India as a strong competitor to China. Additionally, India has good relations with Western countries, which bodes well for its strategic position vis-à-vis China.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that India’s annual economic growth will be over 6% from 2023 to 2028, with per capita GDP growth approaching China’s current level. This estimate is based on India’s annual growth of around 5% and the U.S.’s growth of 1.4%. The population of India is also projected to be 4.4 times that of the U.S. by then. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that India’s economy will be on par with that of the U.S. by 2050.
Previously, World Bank President, Ajay Banga, had remarked that India’s economy remains robust amidst global sluggishness due to strong domestic demand.